No, that's not a typo, I really did mean to type "Peak Peak Oil". For a while it seemed that the media chatter about "Peak Oil" theory had calmed down a bit (or maybe I wasn't pay as much attention). Anyway, I recently came across this rather level headed Australian documentary called Four Corners that is a good primer for all those who have not already got their head around this concept.
One consequence of Peak Oil that I haven't heard in a while is what happens when every nation starts ramping up home grown, often synthetic alternatives to oil as mentioned in Four Corners - like synthetic bio-oil, coal liquefaction etc. etc. and selling that on the world market, if they have any to spare that is. Are those countries really going to want to keep selling it priced in US dollars, an increasingly weak and poorly managed currency?
They day they decide "No" will be the day the US gets a double whammy from the Peak Oil effect that will have even more impact on our country than dry gas pumps - it'll be dry greenback pumps as foreign investors pull out their massive and cheap supply of investment capital. Spiraling interest rates will follow as the country futilely tries to maintain the flow of dollar investment and that ain't gonna be pretty at home. As Four Corners points out, a 1930s depression, or worse could easily be just around the corner as the entire global economy takes a "correction" for its last 50 years or so of massive over extension.
Finally, the other thing I didn't hear was that oil is used for far more than for driving and flying our fat globe-trotting asses all over the shop. No, actually a huge amount of that oil is turned into plastic, fertilizers, and any number of chemical products that our entire society has become dependent on, even more so than oil. Switching our cars to electric or electric-hydrogen systems is a no brainer, but we should really be doing RIGHT NOW regardless of whether there is oil still left in the ground because when there isn't, synthesizing all those plastics, and other petro-products from corn and cow poop is going to be a darn sight harder and expensive than using an electric motor to power our cars right now. Of course you could just argue we can ditch plastic all together and go back to wood which would be rather nice for our little carbon-dioxide problem.
Maybe in 50 years time everyone will be rushing to replant the Amazon Rainforests to make a quick buck? One thing is for sure, as we rush to push land back into natural production of materials powered by that big-ole free energy source in the sky known as the sun there will be quite the rush on real estate and squeeze to pillage our national parks to make a buck. Lets hope sanity will win the day and people will finally figure out the way to solve the supply and demand problem is not more supply but less demand. Yes folks, less growth, even decline can be a good thing. For once economists have to learn to start fearing increases in demand, increases in output, increases in consumption and lets face it, increases in population. Remember folks - being child free is patriotic - we're saving the world one less consumer at a time!
And finally finally (again intentional because I already had a "finally...") if you want a bit of balance from someone who thinks there is no impending doom you can read Confessions of an ex-doomer at Peak-Oil Debunked. Actually I never said there is going to be an impending doom, a long hard recession is hardly doom, even global war over resources is hardly the end of the world (in an extreme peak-oil scenario do we even have the cheap oil to afford anything other than lobbing missiles around?), but lets face it, just like with global warming without some vision of impending doom to galvanize the population, the switch to alternative and more energy efficient technologies will take a lot, lot longer. Some people will argue its all market driven - ie. no matter how much doom mongering people will just follow the dollar and buy everything while its cheap. I'm sure that's partly, even mostly true - high prices have certainly kicked off all kinds of expensive oil production schemes, but I happen to believe that doom mongering has helped create a market too as Bush has shown more than adequately in their selling of fear and loathing via the never ending fight against doom also known as "war on terrorism" (because lets face it, the "war on drugs" just didn't cut it for oppressing an entire nation, only 2% of it). For once its nice to think a story of doom might be working for the good of the country...
Remember kids, as I mentioned already: "Sovle the oil crisis - reduce demand - wear a condom", its the ultimate act of patriotism.
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